I came to some good pondering yesterday while taking a shit and consoling myself after a brutal Cubs loss (12-7 to the Reds). I uttered to myself, “oh well, you can’t win ‘em all and it’s not like we’re going after 116.” 116 being the MLB records for wins in a season, set originally by the 1906 Cubs and tied by the 2001 Mariners. This then got me thinking about how those teams have done. I remember the Mariners getting bounced quickly by the Yankees in ’01 (4-1 after going to 5 games in round one vs. the Indians) and remember other teams in other sports get embarrassed in the play-offs after waltzing through the regular season. In fact, of the 14 best MLB season records of all time, only 5 ended up champions. So it would appear to be a detriment to walk through your regular season without any real challenges.
Even though at first that seems counter-intuitive, that makes perfect sense to me. I’m going through a similar thing right now with hockey. After not playing any live, competitive games for 11 months due to my surgery, it’s hard to stoke that competitive fire right away. It’s like you forget how to really focus and buckle down. In the case of baseball, when you’ve been a lock for the division for a month, you don’t really go balls-out in a losing game. Why risk hurting yourself when the only thing you’re chasing is a record that doesn’t mean much? So when you’ve got your back put against the wall suddenly in the play-offs, you struggle to really get moving and do something. You get sloppy and make mistakes. You get over-matched by players with ½ the talent.
In fact, you see a similar effect when teams have a long lay-off b/t playoff series. If you sweep in team in 4 games, then have to wait a week while the other guys go 7 games, teams are often noticeably sloppier in that first game. Some teams are affected more than others, but you can see it in pretty much everyone if you know to look for it.
On the flip side, you don’t want to have to scratch and claw your way into the playoffs right up until the last day. While your players are well versed in playing under pressure and finding ways to win, that’s a lot of stress on everyone and you start to wear down. In addition, you can’t take a week to get your pitching rotation. And that becomes very important in a 5-game series. If you have to use your ace in game 162 just to make the playoffs, you may only get to use him 1 time in your opening series. And all of your bullpen guys and position players are going to be tired and stressed from the race to the finish. Ideally you like to give your big guys a day or 2 off in that last week so they’re fresh. Not too many days, which should be obvious by now. (Re-read the previous paragraph if you don’t know why.) You want fresh arms, fresh legs, and fresh minds going into the playoffs. Fresh, but still knowing what it means to battle for a close game and win.
In case you’re wondering, as I was, how dominating the ’08 Cubs would need to be to tie their franchise’s own record…they’d have to go 61-9 the rest of the way to get to 116. So after winning at a 0.598 clip thus far (on pace for 97 wins), they’d have to jump to a .871 clip to tie their record. I don’t see that happening. Nor do I want that to happen. I want them to cruise to a comfortable NL-best record for the #1 seed, allowing them to give guys some needed rest, without losing their drive. I really don’t need a repeat of last year, and this year the playoffs won’t coincide with my sister’s wedding. That gave me a welcome distraction from the agony last year.
And everyone mark October 14 on their calendars. That’s the official 100 year anniversary of the last Cubs World Series Victory. I can’t give you an exact time yet, but I’m working on it. Seems they didn’t keep highly detailed box scores back in aught-8.
No comments:
Post a Comment